Wednesday 24 October 2007

How do you get to Monty Hall

I was in Budapest recently for a short break. Whilst there I had the joy of seeing those four mexican pan pipe players that I seem to see every place I ever travel to. When I got to Venice the first people I saw getting out of the train station was four banditos playing pan pipes, same in San Francisco, and Barcelona. I have come to the conclusion its the same four blokes following me around in some CIA operation. How else could they also turn up at my local shopping centre!
Well not only are the four banditos following me around, but apparrently so is Deal or No Deal. Having enjoyed a goulash based dinner I returned to my hotel and flicked on the TV. Having got quite bored of BBC World (which has no point at all.... and I thought BBC4 was bad), and Eurosport (when you find yourself riveted to Sumo Wrestling you know something isn`t right with the world) I started flicking through the remaining foreign channels (hey its was post 10 p.m. there was always the chance of softcore porn!).

What I did come to however was the Italian version of Deal or No Deal. I`m afraid the presenter was a little more suave than Noel TidyBeard, and his shirts weren`t as loud, but the woman playing the game made up for the loudness. I came in right at the end and she had just two boxes left, 250,000 euros and 250 euros. The bankers offer was 80,000 euros. I don`t speak Italian but all I can tell you is she went on a 14 minute monologue - there was crying, there was wailing, family members sobbed (I am guessing at one stage she had offered to give her brother a kidney or something). Even the woman`s boyfriend was trying to get her to actually pick a box and get the hell on with it. What makes me laugh with these things is that rather than actually understanding they are leaving with more money than they came with regardless, to them these choices seem to be the equivalent of a scene from Rosemary`s Baby.

She decides to decline the offer of 80,000 and is going to pick one of the boxes. She is then given the option to swap the box. Its at this point I start shouting at the screen. "Swap the box, swap the box. Monty Hall means you have to swap the box!"

So for any of you who ever find yourselves on Deal or No Deal, I am going to tell you all about the Monty Hall problem and why, if you are ever offered to swap the box, you have to swap the box.

In the 60`s there was an American tv game show. Finalists were invited up onto the stage, where there were three closed doors. The host, Monty Hall, explains that behind one of the doors is the star prize - a car. Behind each of the other two doors is a goat. Obviously the contestant wants to win the car, but does not know which door conceals the car.

The host invites the contestant to choose one of the three doors. Let us suppose that the contestant chooses door number 3. Now, Monty Hall does not initially open the door chosen by the contestant. Instead he opens one of the other doors - let us say it is door number 1. The door that the host opens will always reveal a goat. Remember Monty knows what is behind every door!

The contestant was then asked if they want to stick with their original choice, or if they wanted to change their mind, and choose the other remaining door that has not yet been opened. In this case number 2. The studio audience shout suggestions. What is the best strategy for the contestant? Does it make any difference whether they change their mind or stick with the original choice?

This is not an example of simple probability (suppose there are two doors, therefore there is a 1 in 2 chance of the car being behind either of the doors). This is an example of conditional probability: what is the chance of something happening, given that something else already has.

Their chance of being right initially is still only 1 in 3. But now the host opens a door revealing a goat, and the contestant changes their mind - and 2 times out of 3 they will be right. So, if the contestant sticks with their original choice, they will win the car 1 time in 3, and if they switch doors, they will win the car 2 times in 3. Though this may sound rubbish this is a well known probability problem that has been known to maths men and women for over a hundred years. I guarantee if you try the game yourself you`ll find you win the car more often by swapping the door. Still don`t believe me, check out this blokes whizzy simulator:

http://www.grand-illusions.com/simulator/montysim.htm

So now look at this in the context of Deal or No Deal. You have 22 boxes. If you get down to the last two then your chances of having the jackpot in your first chosen box is 1 in 22, whereas, using the Monty Hall theory, the chances of it being in the other box is 21 in 22. So you have to swap the box.

So we go back to that poor Italian woman, screaming her head off. She has turned down the offer. She also decides NOT to swap the box, which means she now only has a 1 in 22 chance of winning the jackpot......

Her box is opened......

It has 250,000 euros in it!

Well there was always a 1 in 22 chance that she got the right box, and this time she did. Lucky cow! See, its these type of people, those who only have a one in 22 change of beating you, and then frequently go on and do, that makes poker so infuriating sometimes (see you knew I couldn`t get to the end without mentioning poker!)

My major question about all of this is nothing to do with the counter intuitive probability, but whether, if you chose the goat rather than the car, you actually got to take the goat home?




Pot total: $430.23 ($52.23 increase from last blog)

Friday 5 October 2007

Robbing the Bank

Now now children, sit down, its time to start the lesson. Jones, I told you to take that crayon out of your nose, it won`t help dislodge the action man hand you stuck up their yesterday, just leave it alone!

Okay, so its that time for a lesson. And that lesson is Bankroll management. Yes you can all stop yawning and moaning, I know its boring, but it has to be talked about.

Well that was the plan 2 weeks ago anyway. Two weeks ago my pot stood at a healthy $440, however during a most ridiculous run of bad luck (straights from no where beating aces, and more annoyingly being beaten by a bloke three times with Jacks each time). So now my pot stands, ridiculously at the exact same it did this time last month $378. However to loose that much in a run in two weeks has been gutting.

I will however mention bankroll management. Proper poker money management suggests that, so as not to go bankrupt, but at the same time not to take years to earn some money, that you should always work on the principal of playing at a level that equates to 30 times your buy in. So for example if you were to play in a 10 player $10 sit and go, you would need to have $300 in your pot to make sure you are able to deal with the ups and downs and show a good profit with good poker.

Now any of you paying special attention (or even reading any of this diatribe) will realise that my pot is currently $378 but I am playing at $5 sit and go level. Clearly way under the level I should be playing at. Well what can I say I am a cautious soul... and if you met my parents where risk is having a chinese rather than indian takeaway on a Friday night, you`d understand why.

Originally I had been hoping to be at around the $500 mark when writing this, and as such suggest that I work on the principal of playing at 50 times the buy in. However what has been concerning me is the quality of players I have been playing recently. Namely they are bad and lucky. I don`t mean this as a sob story, but its beginning to take the piss. So, dear reader, the decision has been to take an even between the two. I will start playing at 40 times the buy in. Which means, if I reach $400 by my next blog post, I will be playing in the $10 buy in. Holy crap! Admittedly with the exchange rate as it is that probably works out at 30p, but thats beside the point.

Wish me luck people - if there are any of you out there!

Oh and feel free to write a comment on any of this drivel. Otherwise I wonder if I am just talking to myself. My therapist doesn`t think thats a good thing. Neither do the other three voices in my head.

Byeeeeeee.


Pot total: $378 (0 increase from last blog)

Friday 7 September 2007

Its Alive........ Game

So it took me until I bumped into an old friend of mine on the street yesterday to realise I really should pull my finger out and update this.

We could be in to this for the long term (on the basis of the results in the poker anyway) so I suspect updates may well be once a month unless someone wants to pay me millions to produce this as some fascinating documentary for Skys awful poker channel, in which case I will happily update this with any random made up rubbish more frequently :-)

Something else I have noticed recently is that being single I now seem to play less poker than I did when I was seeing A. I`d like to say its because of my wonderously busy social life, but I blame it on decorating and Bioshock.

Well having played for over a year online I have finally ventured into the real game. With actual people.... looking at me..... and spotting the obvious tell of me rolling my eyes when I don`t get the cards I want. I`d like to say my cherry was taken by a casino room in the Bellagio or something like that. No it was taken by a rough looking pub in Moorgate. Sounds much like my virginity, but hey that a different story.

Due to the restrictions on gambling this is an interesting little set up. You pay a miserly £5 to help run the club and for that you then get to play in a tournament, the winner of which takes home a rather classy 4 inch tall trophy. Whether you get to keep it, or have to give it back for the week after I don`t know (which sort of blows the tension out on whether I won I will admit).

So I decide to use underhand tactics and decide to bring my friend M along. Now M has never played poker before in her life, but she is tall, pretty, intelligent and loud, so I was hoping she would dazzle all the other guys whilst I nicked all their chips.

The first hour M and I sat aside and I gave her a crash course on playing Texas Hold 'Em, and I have to say she picked up in an hour things it had taken me 6 months to learn. Was this because of my amazing teaching styles (meaning I should quit my job and earn millions off of online tutorials) or whether she is just quicker on the uptake than I am I just couldn`t say.

The tourney (thats poker speak for tournament by the way :-) ) kicked off with a draw for tables. We have around 18 people playing, varying from an old woman who i swear was knitting whilst she was playing, through to a guy who clearly had no social interaction with anyone any other time of the week so had to tell someone all of the information he had been thinking about that week in the space of half an hour. It wasn`t until we sat and played that you got to see some pretty surprising game play.

The draw led to a good table. For one M was drawn on my table, and she managed to draw a seat sitting opposite the guy I was convinced was going to be the best player at the table. M hadn`t worn the low cut top I had pleaded with her to, so I`d just have to hope her feminine ways would work instead.

A beginner is always told that when you start playing a tourney you play very tight in the beginning (and no this doesn`t have some sexual reference, but that you only play very premium hands AA, KK, QQ, AK etc) and then as the game goes on you loosen up a bit as more people are knocked out. Well thats the theory anyway. Unless you have been watching too much poker on TV which seemed to be the case for one young guy on our table who just decided to chuck his chips in with any set of cards.

Now funnily enough, £5 for a nights entertainment doesn`t pay for three dealers for the night so shuffling and dealing had to be done by each of us in turn. I was more nervous about this that the hands I was playing, and duly managed to drop cards, miscut the pack, and all sorts of other misdemeanours, but the other players were generous in their patience and let me get on with it. Now if only someone could make a buzzer sound when it was my turn to put a small or big blind into the pot I would have felt a lot more at home!

I`ll be honest and say I didn`t play particularly well, getting through without looking like an idiot was more important to me, but there were three hands that were of revelance to the night. Now I won`t bore you with the details, but the funny thing for me is that in all the time I have played online I could never understand people who could remember specific hands how they dealt and bet. I can barely remember a hand I played 2 minutes ago, but then thats ADHD for you :-)

In the first major hand I actually went up against M. After a couple of rounds of betting I put her on a far better hand than me (mine was only marginal anyway), and I folded, with her taking my chips. She later told me it was a bluff. Bugger! Is there not respect for your elders nowadays!

The second was when we had gone down to only two tables left. I had had such bad cards and was running out of chips that I put all my remaining chips in with 9 and 8 of diamonds. With three people calling me I really had no chance. Then, two more 9`s and another 8 came on the board. Wahey! Sod skill I`ll take pure luck every time.

It was enough to get me to the final 5 players. I had not had a proper hand all night, and was just holding on. It got to the point of playing kamikazee - throwing my money in with educated but not great hands, and I did manage to claw my way back up again.

What was to cripple me was a hand where I matched an early raise with K 10 and saw a flop. 6, 10 Q came out on the flop, giving me a pair of tens. My opponent raised hard again, and stupidly I called the raise again. A nothing card came out next and my opponent pushed in for all his chips. I was so short stacked I should have put all the rest of my chips in and called it a night.... thats what poker theory says you do. Instead I folded. He turned over a pair of 7`s. I was gutted. Now normally water off a ducks back when I play online, but that hand annoyed me for the following two days. Its not a play I would do again. I went out in 5th place but thoroughly enjoyed the evening and both I and M will be returning.

Mental note to myself though. Either go out in around 6th place, or hang around until about 3rd place. It means you don`t narrowly miss your train and have to wait another hour for the next one.

Thats me done for now.


Pot total: $378 (yes it has gone down over the month, if you don`t tell anyone I won`t either)

Wednesday 8 August 2007

Returning from my brush with death

Okay some of you may have spotted the vast amount of posts today. No I am not that bored at work (well...........) but in fact have cheated and shifted over my original blog entries from Myspace to a place someone might actually read them.

So this is in fact the first new one in a few weeks. Ironically as my first blog said, its been because I have been in bed. Though this time it wasn`t the old school lie, but a dose of weird cold/flu. Obviously being a man this means I was touching death at points, but I seemed to have recovered enough so am back to work. Yay!

Well since my last posting (which was actually three weeks ago) several things have changed. On the house move Kempston is not now front runner.... because someone has suddenly decided to build a giant aquarium in it. Now as you may well learn over the next few months, I am a fish fan (prepare the Simpsons sleeps with fishes joke), but I am not that much of a fish fan. So the hunt for the area moves on.

Anyway what I wanted to explain about today was this whole poker thang. As there are so many versions of the game then I thought I better explain the rules of my game.

So the plan is to try and raise enough money that would cover my full mortgage at some point in the future. Now you could argue, "well if he is that good then it only takes a couple of high stakes games and your laughing". Well trust me I am not that good. In fact I am starting here from rock bottom. I have been playing online poker now for around a year, and I started off with a pot of $50, and playing at the lowest level tables you can find. Having only gone broke once (So had to put another $50 in) thats been my starting point.

As for the type of game, well I have tried cash games, and failed dismally. By my reckoning I couldn`t have burnt money any quicker than I lost it in the cash games. Not so much from bad play as bad results with too much money riding on them. So I have adopted Sit 'n' Go`s (SNG) as my profit of choice - which many who play the game think a bit of an odd choice as the profit margins aren`t good.

So how does a Sit 'n' Go (SNG) work. Well in the ones I play 10 players pay a set amount of money to play the game. They play against each other in a "mini" tournament, and the last three win money. 3rd gets 20% of the winning, 2nd gets 30% and 1st gets 50%. Simple as that. When I first started playing I was playing in games where the initial payment in was $1 meaning that the most you could win was $3. As you can tell - not a lot. Well over a year, and going through levels I am now playing $5 SNGs. My current intention is to stick with SNGs throughout this plan and just raise the level I play at when I feel my game and my bank balance can withstand it.

With illness having struck there was plenty of time to use a laptop in bed. Now, I made the novel decision that rather than surf the net for porn, I would instead play a few games, and the bad streak has turned around a bit. So with this blog entry coming to an end, I can tell you the pot now stands at:

$404.00

I thank you!

Oh, and I promise, this blog won`t just be about poker. If only because I have a very short attention span and am bound to ramble on about something or other.

The House That I Built

So after ten years of living in the village most people have referred to as both "Royston Vasey", and "The place my SatNav can`t find" I have decided its time to up sticks and move.

Yes I know I have been banging on about this for years, but this time it really truly will happen! You want to know how committed I am to this - I am even covering the strange wooden beams behind the radiator in the lounge. See now you know I`m serious.

The plan has always been to come nearer into London, and so I am looking to find a place that is available on more than just one train line - call me old fashioned but having my whole life grind to a halt anytime Midland Mainline has a stress just isn`t funny any more. I need to find a place where at least two train lines can fall apart at the same time.

Current front runner is Kempston. But on the basis I change my mind as often as I change my socks (about once a month) it could well change. We shall watch this space. Launch date, or as it will come to be known F-day ie "how the F*** are you going to move that fish tank" day is aiming to be Xmas.

IN other matters, clearly this whole "can I pay my mortgage by poker" has already become the kiss of death having been hammered with a series of bad beats over the last couple of days. Cardinal rule of poker, no one gives a toss about your bad beats, so I`ll not write them down - but what I will do, at the end of each blog entry is give you the current pot total. If anything good happens outside of that, or I suudenly need a rant, I`ll put it on here as well.

Cheers me dears,



POT TOTAL: $273

Aggression Factor Flop 4

Okay, how impressive is this, two entries in one day. You all know it won`t last :-)

I have a feeling there may be two themes running through a lot of my blog posts, which may well culminate in them meeting together (oooh see how exciting this can all be). For the time being its time to talk about Agression Factor Flop 4, or, put it another way, can poker pay my mortgage!

I should explain that AFF4 was a phrase that has become synonimous (spelling was never my forte) with a program called Poker Night Live. Never seen it - shame on you, it was clearly your fault it got cancelled! :-) Basically a three hour nightly program of people commentating on poker hands.... seemingly the most boring thing in the world! Well the thing is you can`t comment on poker for three hours a night, so some pretty random subjects came up in discussion. Apparently only Dracula can beat The Thing in Top Trumps. See did you know that, no neither did I !

Anyway watching the program led me to dabbling in a bit of online poker myself. Now for those of you who know me I am no gambler, and started playing it at 25p tables I suspect I`ll never be retiring on the proceeds, though I have noticed in the few months that I have been playing that my initial $50 bankroll is now up to $300.

This morning I also got a white envelope through the post telling me the yealy misery that is my endowment policy growth. (Bear with me this will get interesting in a minute). I realised that I had earnt more from my poker than I had from my endowment policy. So the question is can I make more money from my poker playing than I can from my investment. Will poker pay for my house! I have fifteen years left, so this could be a really long blog. he he

Anyway thats enough for today. All we have left to say is WE LOVE YOU NICK AND MATT!

So this is a blog?

Okey dokey, well working with computer for most of my day I feel like I must be missing out on some part of the tinternet by not writing a blog. Now if this goes anything like it did with a diary I wrote when I was at school this will mean that after a couple of entries I`ll start saying that I went to bed at midday.... saved me having to think of anything else to say.